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Application of GIS and Logistic Regression for Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Nilwala River Basin, Sri Lanka

Authors:

H. D. Abeysiriwardana ,

Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology (SLIIT), LK
About H. D.

Lecturer

 

B.Sc. Eng. (Hons) (Moratuwa), PG.Dip. (Moratuwa), MSc. ( Manchester)

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N. T. S. Wijesekera

Construction Industry Development Authority (CIDA), LK
About N. T. S.

Chairman

 

C.Eng., FIE (SL), MICE (UK), B.Sc. Eng.Hons. (Sri Lanka), P.G. Dip. (Moratuwa), M.Eng. (Tokyo), Ph.D. (Tokyo)

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Abstract

Flood susceptibility mapping is a crucial element in flood management. This study aimed to investigate the applicability of logistic regression (LR) and GIS tools to produce a flood susceptibility map for Nilwala river basin in Sri Lanka. Four conditioning factors: elevation, slope angle, distance from river and land-use, were selected as flood conditioning factors. Flood inventory database consisted of 205 flood and 199 non-flood locations; out of these, 70% was selected as the training dataset, and the remaining 30% was taken as the testing dataset. The flood susceptibility map was developed in ArcGIS 10.5, based on the LR coefficients derived in R statistical language. The four flood conditioning factors were statistically significant at P < 0.05. The Receiver Operating Characteristics curve method was used to validate the model. Area under the Success Rate Curve and Prediction Rate Curve were 86% and 87%, respectively. The Area Under the Curves values reveal the model's excellent compatibility and predictability. Therefore, a high degree of confidence can be placed on the model to identify flood vulnerable areas in Nilwala basin. Hence, the developed susceptibility map might be a vital decisionmaking tool for water managers.

How to Cite: Abeysiriwardana, H.D. and Wijesekera, N.T.S., 2022. Application of GIS and Logistic Regression for Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Nilwala River Basin, Sri Lanka. Engineer: Journal of the Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka, 55(2), pp.1–9. DOI: http://doi.org/10.4038/engineer.v55i2.7503
Published on 22 Sep 2022.
Peer Reviewed

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