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Development of a model for prediction of solar radiation


W. D. A. S. Wijayapala ,

University of Moratuwa, LK
About W. D. A. S.

Eng., BScEng(Hons) (Moratuwa), MEng(Moratuwa), Int.PEng(SL), CEng, FIE(Sri Lanka)

Senior Lecturer, Department of Electrical Engineering

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D. H. K. Kushal

Central Engineering Consultancy Bureau, LK
About D. H. K.

Eng.,  BScEng (Hons) (Ruhuna), MSc (Moratuwa), AMIE(Sri Lanka)

Electrical Engineer

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Power generation from renewable energy sources such as wind, mini-hydro, solar etc is becoming increasingly popular due to environmental concerns. However, it is not possible to predict the energy generation of solar power plants in advance. Hence the power system operator has no information about the tomorrow’s possible energy availability from these non-dispatchable power plants. The outcome of this study enables the system operator to predict the possible energy generation from solar power plants based on the weather forecasts and provide the system operator with predictions on energy generation and capacity of solar power plants connected to the grid. The predictions will enable to prepare the dispatch schedules accordingly.

In this study, the effect of the geographical and meteorological parameters for predicting daily global solar radiation at Sooriyawewa, Hambantota in Sri Lanka is investigated. A multiple linear regression was applied to explain the relationship among solar radiation and identified meteorological and geographical parameters such as cloud cover, sunshine duration, precipitation, open air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, gust speed and sine value of declination angle. Variables in these equations were used to estimate the global solar radiation. Values calculated/predicted from models were compared with the actual measurements to validate the model.

ENGINEER, Vol. 48, No.03, pp. 19-25 2015
How to Cite: Wijayapala, W.D.A.S. and Kushal, D.H.K., 2015. Development of a model for prediction of solar radiation. Engineer: Journal of the Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka, 48(3), pp.19–25. DOI:
Published on 29 Jul 2015.
Peer Reviewed


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